Playing Without Seeing the Cards

Sun, 25 Oct 2026 17:04:00 +0800

What a 90-day round trip in Lenovo taught me about deciding with limited information, in markets and in life

At the end of July, I bought shares of Lenovo Group in Hong Kong at around HK$21. By mid-September they were trading near HK$38. By late October they were back near HK$22.¹

The whole round trip took less than 90 days.

The business did not reverse as dramatically as the share price did. Lenovo was still the world’s largest PC maker, and its August results showed a real improvement in server profitability. But those results changed what investors knew. Later, IDC’s preliminary figures showed Lenovo’s PC shipments down 22.6% year on year in the third quarter, while worries about AI financing grew. There was new evidence on both sides. I cannot put an exact percentage of the rise or fall down to fundamentals rather than expectations.²

Uncertainty on Luke's Blog

Playing Without Seeing the Cards