https://www.lukeliang.uk/tags/private-markets/Recent content in Private-Markets on Luke's BlogHugoenSat, 03 Oct 2026 15:58:26 +0800https://www.lukeliang.uk/posts/20261003-1558/Sat, 03 Oct 2026 15:58:26 +0800https://www.lukeliang.uk/posts/20261003-1558/<p>2026 looks like a good year for Chinese venture capital. IPOs are returning, and the most visible AI and chip companies have produced eye-catching paper gains. I have invested in China&rsquo;s private markets for more than a decade, but the question I keep coming back to is different: how much of that paper value will reach the people who financed the funds?</p> <p>In the first half of 2026, seven companies accounted for 41% of the value of VC/PE holdings in newly listed Chinese companies, measured at their issue prices.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> That concentration matters. <strong>My view is that, at today&rsquo;s entry prices, many smaller independent managers and individual LPs are unlikely to earn net returns that justify the risk and a decade of illiquidity.</strong> This is a judgment about a particular part of the market, not a claim that no Chinese VC fund can perform well.</p>