Bitcoin

The Case of Bitcoin, and the Epistemology of Its Parameters Working paper · Methodological research June 2026 Abstract This paper examines a class of capital-deployment methods for building positions in assets that exhibit endogenous cyclicality, using Bitcoin as its case. Bitcoin’s protocol embeds a deterministic supply-decay mechanism — the block subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks, approximately four years — producing a price history with a non-sentiment-driven periodic structure. This institutional fact is the foundation on which the method rests. ...

Prelude: Two Voices On January 3, 2009, someone whose identity no one knows wrote a rule into a piece of code: For every 210,000 blocks produced, the issuance of new coins is halved. The rule gives no reason. It doesn’t explain why 210,000, doesn’t explain why halving rather than some other decay. It simply exists, like an axiom. Seventeen years later, on some night in 2026, I sat in front of my screen and wrote down a rule of my own: ...